Peculiarities of calculation of individual risk taking into account seasonal factor
Abstract
Seasonal fluctuations and factors have a significant impact on various spheres of activity of a modern enterprise. Understanding these factors allows for a more accurate assessment of production risks and making informed decisions. Seasonal factors in Russia, given its size and diversity of climatic zones, have a significant impact on the operations of hazardous production facilities (hereinafter - HPF), and in the context of global climate change and economic instability, they are becoming increasingly significant in the operation of HPF. In this regard, a more flexible adaptive approach to risk assessment is required, which creates a need for research and implementation of new calculation methodologies. In recent years there has been a growing interest in integrating the seasonal factor into risk management. This creates an opportunity for further research and exchange of experience, so the study of the peculiarities of calculating individual risk taking into account the seasonal factor is relevant for both theoretical understanding and practical application in various industries. The article discusses the key aspects and methodological approaches to the calculation of individual risk taking into account seasonal temperature fluctuations. The authors analyse existing approaches to calculate individual (potential-territorial) risk and note that these methods are valid for technological processes, which are carried out at temperatures above the maximum air temperature in the corresponding climatic zone, and for industries, the technological process of which is carried out at ambient temperature, such an approach gives highly overestimated results, which leads to unnecessary material costs in the design and new construction of GRO. Therefore, it is proposed to calculate the individual (potential-territorial) risk taking into account the seasonal factor for production facilities, the technological process of which is carried out at ambient temperature. Such integration of the seasonal factor impact analysis into the risk management system will increase the efficiency of decision-making and allow more accurate forecasting of potential threats.
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